I have read this entire thread, and I would like to say that I am astonished. But, I am not. I've heard it all before.
I will add my 2 cents. These statements are simply my opinion, grounded in reason.
1. There is one and only one source for the value of the IQD. That's the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI).
2. There will NOT be notice of an RV. That would cause a run on the CBI. And I don't care who says they have insider information.
3. At best, the IQD should be valued between $1.00 and $1.25 (Yes, they have a lot of natural resources, but not much of it is moving).
4. The chances of a large overnight RV is rather slim. It would not do much for the Iraq society if ALL Iraqi people became rich overnight. In fact, it would almost be counter-productive.
5. The Iraqis are unlikely to RV their currency as long as the U.S. is still throwing the American dollar at them. And we are still throwing dollars at them. We will continue to throw dollars at them until full troop withdrawal from Iraq. And possibly beyond. Just think about it, if you were in their position, would you RV the currency?
6. An RV need not be large scale change of value. Even a small change in currency value is still an RV.
7. A substantial change in the value of the IQD will not occur until the Hyrdocarbon Law is finalized.
8. You can not conclude that the Hydrocarbon Law has been finalized based on the business actions of the Kurds.
9. To my knowledge, the Hydrocarbon Law has NOT been finalized.
10. If/when the Hyrdocarbon Law is finalized, it will be big news. You will not have to read "between the lines" to figure it out.
I used to track news and rumors to ground. But I got tired of doing it. I do still check in on things, but if it takes me more than 10 minutes, I'm just not likely to take it any further. I came to findout, if it takes longer than 10 minutes, it' probably not true anyway. So far, that rule has served me good.
Ok. That's my simple minded conclusion. Hate me if you want, but I still bet I'm more correct than any of the dialog posted from the other forums.