Well, Rockhopper, Obama has now officially announced the ET of the withdrawal. I got off the conference call with troops in Iraq a few moments ago and things really getting hectic due to the withdrawal as you may imagine.
I do not know if what you suggest means that this means the RV will take place is accurate. I hope it is, but I have a hunch that it will not happen now. IF peace remains and there is not a civil war and if Iran is kept at bay and the oil fields are opened up fully, perhaps it will happen. I don't know if any of that is going to happen either.
I think we will know for sure by the end of the year. Let's pray that our soldiers get out safely and that the Iraqi people don't descend into all out war.
I'm not and never have said the troop withdrawal would be the trigger for an RV. I'm saying it is one of the many things that needs to occur before an RV will happen. The hydrocarbon law is also an event on my shortlist of things that needs to occur. Regardless, the U.S. dollar cash cow has to dry up. That's for sure.
Personally, I'm a big fan of slow growth for the IQD. The IQD used to increase a few pips every week prior to the last quarter of '08 when Shabibi froze the rate in order to battle inflation. That alone tells me we need neither the HCL nor the troop withdrawal in order for the IQD to increase in value. By every financial definition, every time the IQD increased by even a single pip, that was an RV. But if you want the IQD to be elevated to a realistic and valid value, I feel we need those things cited above.
Yes. Let's pray for the safety of the troops as they prepare to leave Iraq.